HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
62-48 | Road
3
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
60-51 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Okert
#48 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Okert | None-None | 2.90 | -- | 1.1 | 3 |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.24 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.90
ERA
Ldr 1.24
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
52%
RED SOX
48%
ASTROS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
32%
Under 0
68%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.6%
BOS By 1-2 runs
15.9%
BOS By 3-4 runs
10.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
5.12
HOUSTON
Boston
3.98
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
HOU @ BOS
3 - 1
May 2, 2026
HOU @ BOS
6 - 3
May 1, 2026
HOU @ BOS
1 - 3
Apr 1, 2026
BOS @ HOU
4 - 6
Mar 31, 2026
BOS @ HOU
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Boston
BOS
2
Games Played
2
3.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.169
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.229
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.354
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.582
▲
OPS
.409
4
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+66.7% more
Houston: 3.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+32.9% more
Houston: 10.1
vs
Boston: 6.8
OPS (Season)
+17.3%
Houston: 58.2%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+10.4%
Houston: 35.4%
vs
Boston: 25.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
5.1
3
BOS Score
4.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 8.2
10.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.2
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.8 / 10.1
6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
17.1 / 12.9
24.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.4 / 2.9
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
HOU
BOS
HOU
ML
50%
80-80
50%
81-82
47%
76-87
47%
77-87
ATS
58%
93-67
56%
91-72
48%
79-84
55%
90-74
TTL
46%
72-83-5
45%
70-84-9
47%
74-83-6
45%
69-86-9
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