ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
46-63 | Road
4
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
58-53 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brent Suter
#39 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sam Moll
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Suter | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 2.2 | 2 |
| Sam Moll | None-None | 8.10 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.38 Ldr
ERA
8.10
--
WHIP
--
2.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
40%
REDS
60%
BRAVES
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
58%
Under 0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
ATL By 1-2 runs
17.8%
ATL By 3-4 runs
12.6%
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.9%
CIN By 3-4 runs
14.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.63
ATLANTA
Cincinnati
4.95
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Loss
60% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
A
Sim
Reds (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CIN @ ATL
7 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
CIN @ ATL
2 - 3
Sep 22, 2026
CIN @ ATL
4 - 0
May 31, 2026
ATL @ CIN
4 - 6
May 30, 2026
ATL @ CIN
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.757
▲
OPS
.699
1
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+21200.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+79.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.3
vs
Atlanta: 0.5
Errors (L5)
+64.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.8
vs
Atlanta: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+37.4% more
Cincinnati: 10.5
vs
Atlanta: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.6
4
CIN Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 8.8
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.5 / 7.6
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 12.2
10.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.4
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ATL
CIN
ATL
ML
55%
88-71
46%
77-90
49%
79-81
54%
90-78
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
96-71
50%
80-80
52%
87-81
TTL
53%
81-73-5
53%
83-73-11
54%
83-72-5
49%
76-80-11
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