Home / MLB Projections MLB / Diamondbacks @ Athletics ARI @ ATH

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

51-59  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Aug 2 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

49-63  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Kevin Ginkel
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Ginkel

#37 | Relief Pitcher
@
J.T. Ginn
STARTING PITCHER

J.T. Ginn

#35 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kevin Ginkel None-None 7.36 -- 1.0 2
J.T. Ginn None-None 4.28 -- 4.1 2
None-None W-L None-None
7.36 ERA Ldr 4.28
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.1
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
53%
📊
ATHLETICS
47%
DIAMONDBACKS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 90%
Under 0 10%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (Athletics)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

13.3%

Athletics Cover

86.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ARI By 1-2 runs

6.7%

ARI By 3-4 runs

2.9%

ATH By 1-2 runs

15.2%

ATH By 3-4 runs

19.2%

AI Model Projected Score
1.77
ARIZONA
6.21
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.4
B
Sim Athletics (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 ATH @ ARI 5 - 15
Jul 21, 2026 ATH @ ARI 5 - 6
Jul 20, 2026 ATH @ ARI 5 - 2
Aug 3, 2025 ARI @ ATH 6 - 4
Aug 2, 2025 ARI @ ATH 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720 ▲
OPS
.719
166
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +160.0% more
Athletics: 2.0 vs Arizona: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +81.5% more
Athletics: 17.7 vs Arizona: 9.7
Hits (L5) +44.4% more
Athletics: 9.6 vs Arizona: 6.6
Strikeouts (L5) +31.2% more
Athletics: 7.7 vs Arizona: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 1.8 7
ATH Score 6.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.6 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.6 / 6.6 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 0.4 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 5.8 7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 17.7 / 9.7 13.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.6 8.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
ARI
ATH
ARI
ML
59% 95-67
54% 87-74
54% 87-74
54% 86-74
ATS
52% 84-78
57% 91-70
50% 81-80
56% 89-71
TTL
54% 84-73-5
52% 80-73-8
42% 66-90-5
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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