ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
55-56 | Road
8
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
61-49 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | None-None | 2.70 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 5.09 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.70 Ldr
ERA
5.09
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
44%
PADRES
56%
CARDINALS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
STL By 1-2 runs
13.1%
STL By 3-4 runs
7.4%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.5%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.7%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
2.75
ST. LOUIS
San Diego
4.92
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.2
C
Sim
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 17, 2026
SD @ STL
6 - 1
Jun 16, 2026
SD @ STL
2 - 3
Jun 15, 2026
SD @ STL
0 - 3
May 10, 2026
STL @ SD
2 - 3
May 9, 2026
STL @ SD
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.691
OPS
▲
.925
167
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+84.8% more
San Diego: 9.4
vs
St. Louis: 5.1
Total Bases (L5)
+60.9% more
San Diego: 12.5
vs
St. Louis: 7.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+42.5% more
San Diego: 7.9
vs
St. Louis: 5.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+35.1% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
St. Louis: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
2.8
8
SD Score
4.9
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 5.1
9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 5.6
10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 7.8
15.0 / 18.0
Walks
1.7 / 1.4
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
STL
SD
STL
ML
51%
85-83
53%
85-74
51%
85-82
52%
84-77
ATS
54%
91-77
56%
89-70
55%
92-75
53%
85-76
TTL
51%
82-80-6
46%
68-81-10
54%
86-74-6
50%
76-75-10
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