ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
46-62 | Road
2
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
57-53 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Dodd
#46 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Dodd | None-None | 4.76 | -- | 1.1 | 3 |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 3.04 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.76
ERA
Ldr 3.04
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
41%
REDS
59%
BRAVES
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.8%
ATL By 3-4 runs
14.3%
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.0%
CIN By 3-4 runs
12.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.83
ATLANTA
Cincinnati
4.59
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CIN @ ATL
7 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
CIN @ ATL
2 - 3
Sep 22, 2026
CIN @ ATL
4 - 0
May 31, 2026
ATL @ CIN
4 - 6
May 30, 2026
ATL @ CIN
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.757
▲
OPS
.699
1
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+17.8% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+5.8%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.9%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 39.4%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.9%
Atlanta: 32.4%
vs
Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.8
2
CIN Score
4.6
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.5 / 9.7
5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 7.4
14.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
16.5 / 14.3
8.0 / 8.0
Walks
4.2 / 4.1
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ATL
CIN
ATL
ML
55%
88-71
46%
77-90
49%
79-81
54%
90-78
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
96-71
50%
80-80
52%
87-81
TTL
53%
81-73-5
53%
83-73-11
54%
83-72-5
49%
76-80-11
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