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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

64-44  |  Road

16
FINAL
Fri, Aug 1 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

44-64  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Aaron Ashby
STARTING PITCHER

Aaron Ashby

#26 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aaron Ashby None-None 1.97 -- 1.1 --
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.97 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
68%
📊
NATIONALS
32%
BREWERS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Milwaukee)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

62.9%

Nationals Cover

37.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIL By 3-4 runs

17.1%

WSH By 1-2 runs

15.5%

WSH By 3-4 runs

9.7%

AI Model Projected Score
5.25
MILWAUKEE
3.93
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
MILWAUKEE
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brewers Win
68% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Brewers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
C
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 MIL @ WSH 2 - 3
May 2, 2026 MIL @ WSH 4 - 1
May 1, 2026 MIL @ WSH 6 - 1
Apr 12, 2026 WSH @ MIL 8 - 6
Apr 11, 2026 WSH @ MIL 3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
5.07
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.743
OPS
▲ .744
154
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +55.1% more
Milwaukee: 1.5 vs Washington: 0.7
Walks (L5) +44.3% more
Milwaukee: 4.2 vs Washington: 2.3
Total Bases (L5) +32.6% more
Milwaukee: 15.5 vs Washington: 10.4
Strikeouts (L5) +25.5% more
Milwaukee: 8.7 vs Washington: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 5.3 16
WSH Score 3.9 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.4 3.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 9.0 15.0 / 25.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.5 1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 8.7 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.4 / 15.5 23.0 / 40.0
Walks 2.3 / 4.2 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIL
WSH
MIL
ML
57% 92-69
62% 101-61
54% 87-74
52% 84-78
ATS
58% 93-68
58% 94-68
57% 91-70
48% 78-84
TTL
50% 77-78-6
40% 62-92-8
42% 65-90-6
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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