NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
60-49 | Road
12
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
52-55 | Home
13
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Janson Junk
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | None-None | 2.72 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
| Janson Junk | None-None | 3.86 | -- | 5.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.72 Ldr
ERA
3.86
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
56%
MARLINS
44%
YANKEES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.2%
NYY By 3-4 runs
15.2%
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
11.9%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.07
NEW YORK
Miami
4.5
MIAMI
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Miami
6
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
A
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
MIA @ NYY
7 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
MIA @ NYY
7 - 9
Apr 3, 2026
MIA @ NYY
2 - 8
Aug 3, 2025
NYY @ MIA
3 - 7
Aug 2, 2025
NYY @ MIA
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Miami
MIA
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
1.041
▲
OPS
.727
2
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+51.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Miami: 4.4
Home Runs (L5)
+43.5% more
New York: 1.7
vs
Miami: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+31.4%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Miami: 72.7%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+19.4%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.1
12
MIA Score
4.5
13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 1.0
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.6 / 7.8
12.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.7
3.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 9.1
9.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 14.4
22.0 / 25.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.4
2.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NYY
MIA
NYY
ML
48%
78-84
47%
76-85
55%
88-72
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
91-71
59%
95-66
54%
86-74
53%
86-76
TTL
56%
88-69-5
53%
81-73-7
53%
82-73-5
53%
82-72-7
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