MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
51-57 | Road
2
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
54-54 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joe Ryan
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan | None-None | 2.83 | -- | 6.0 | 4 |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.83 Ldr
ERA
3.00
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
47%
GUARDIANS
53%
TWINS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
76%
Under 0
24%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.1%
MIN By 3-4 runs
15.0%
CLE By 1-2 runs
17.5%
CLE By 3-4 runs
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
5.52
MINNESOTA
Cleveland
5.02
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Twins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
CLE @ MIN
9 - 2
Sep 12, 2026
CLE @ MIN
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
CLE @ MIN
5 - 2
Jul 23, 2026
MIN @ CLE
3 - 1
Jul 22, 2026
MIN @ CLE
10 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720
▲
OPS
.696
187
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+20.7% more
Minnesota: 3.1
vs
Cleveland: 2.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.2% more
Minnesota: 9.0
vs
Cleveland: 7.5
Errors (L5)
+15.0% more
Minnesota: 0.7
vs
Cleveland: 0.5
Home Runs (Season)
+13.4% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
5.5
2
CLE Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.9 / 7.4
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 9.0
14.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
15.7 / 11.4
8.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.1
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MIN
CLE
MIN
ML
54%
87-74
52%
84-78
49%
80-82
50%
80-81
ATS
58%
93-68
59%
95-67
59%
95-67
59%
95-66
TTL
55%
88-71-2
51%
78-75-9
43%
69-90-2
53%
80-72-9
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