Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Rays LAD @ TB

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

63-46  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Aug 1 • 7:35 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

54-56  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Justin Wrobleski
STARTING PITCHER

Justin Wrobleski

#70 | Starting Pitcher
@
Garrett Cleavinger
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Cleavinger

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Justin Wrobleski None-None 4.00 -- 3.0 5
Garrett Cleavinger None-None 2.29 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.00 ERA Ldr 2.29
-- WHIP --
3.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
59%
📊
RAYS
41%
DODGERS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

55.1%

Rays Cover

44.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.2%

LAD By 3-4 runs

15.0%

TB By 1-2 runs

17.4%

TB By 3-4 runs

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.92
LOS ANGELES
3.41
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Rays (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.3
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 TB @ LAD 4 - 5
Jun 16, 2026 TB @ LAD 0 - 1
Jun 15, 2026 TB @ LAD 3 - 4
Aug 3, 2025 LAD @ TB 3 - 0
Aug 2, 2025 LAD @ TB 0 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.257
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.762 ▲
OPS
.728
204 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +35.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.0 vs Tampa Bay: 0.6
Home Runs (Season) +17.2% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Tampa Bay: 169.0
Hits (L5) +11.0% more
Los Angeles: 8.5 vs Tampa Bay: 7.6
Total Bases (L5) +9.3% more
Los Angeles: 13.2 vs Tampa Bay: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 3.9 5
TB Score 3.4 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.6 / 8.5 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 9.5 15.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.0 / 13.2 6.0 / 15.0
Walks 4.1 / 4.3 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
TB
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
LAD
TB
LAD
ML
58% 95-68
56% 92-73
58% 95-68
48% 79-87
ATS
60% 97-66
59% 98-67
55% 90-73
43% 72-94
TTL
47% 73-81-9
48% 77-82-6
51% 78-75-10
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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