Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Rockies PIT @ COL

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

47-62  |  Road

16
FINAL
Fri, Aug 1 • 8:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

28-80  |  Home

17
Probable Pitchers
Yohan Ramirez
STARTING PITCHER

Yohan Ramirez

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yohan Ramirez None-None 4.91 -- 2.0 3
Jimmy Herget None-None 2.91 -- 2.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
4.91 ERA Ldr 2.91
-- WHIP --
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 2.0
3 K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
68%
📊
ROCKIES
32%
PIRATES --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 79%
Under 0 21%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Colorado)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

49.0%

Rockies Cover

51.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

PIT By 1-2 runs

18.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

13.3%

COL By 1-2 runs

18.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.43
PITTSBURGH
3.53
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockies Win
32% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim Rockies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 21, 2026 PIT @ COL 8 - 6
Jun 20, 2026 PIT @ COL 1 - 2
Jun 19, 2026 PIT @ COL 3 - 4
May 14, 2026 COL @ PIT 2 - 7
May 13, 2026 COL @ PIT 10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.734
OPS
▲ .739
186 ▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +67.0% more
Colorado: 0.7 vs Pittsburgh: 0.0
Home Runs (L5) +65.0% more
Colorado: 1.3 vs Pittsburgh: 0.7
Walks (L5) +49.0% more
Colorado: 3.7 vs Pittsburgh: 2.5
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.3%
Colorado: 41.7% vs Pittsburgh: 40.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 3.4 16
COL Score 3.5 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.0 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.7 / 8.5 22.0 / 18.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.7 4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.3 / 8.6 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 12.0 44.0 / 26.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.5 9.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
PIT
COL
PIT
ML
60% 97-64
52% 82-77
55% 88-73
52% 85-78
ATS
60% 97-64
54% 86-73
52% 83-78
50% 81-82
TTL
60% 93-62-6
47% 72-81-6
50% 77-78-6
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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