Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Padres STL @ SD

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

55-55  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Aug 1 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

60-49  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Gordon Graceffo
STARTING PITCHER

Gordon Graceffo

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gordon Graceffo None-None 4.91 -- 1.0 1
Mason Miller None-None 3.66 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.91 ERA Ldr 3.66
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
45%
📊
PADRES
55%
CARDINALS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (San Diego)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

36.0%

Padres Cover

64.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

STL By 1-2 runs

15.2%

STL By 3-4 runs

9.4%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

17.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.06
ST. LOUIS
4.49
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
5
ST. LOUIS
4
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Cardinals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 SD @ STL 6 - 1
Jun 16, 2026 SD @ STL 2 - 3
Jun 15, 2026 SD @ STL 0 - 3
May 10, 2026 STL @ SD 2 - 3
May 9, 2026 STL @ SD 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.691
OPS
▲ .925
167 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +123.9% more
San Diego: 2.5 vs St. Louis: 1.1
Hits (L5) +88.1% more
San Diego: 10.6 vs St. Louis: 5.6
Total Bases (L5) +87.0% more
San Diego: 15.2 vs St. Louis: 8.1
Home Runs (L5) +52.0% more
San Diego: 0.9 vs St. Louis: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.1 1
SD Score 4.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 10.6 / 5.6 7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 6.4 6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 8.1 7.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.5 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
STL
SD
STL
ML
51% 85-83
53% 85-74
51% 85-82
52% 84-77
ATS
54% 91-77
56% 89-70
55% 92-75
53% 85-76
TTL
51% 82-80-6
46% 68-81-10
54% 86-74-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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