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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

51-58  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Aug 1 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

48-63  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Locklear

#31 | First Base
@
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Locklear None-None -- -- -- --
Elvis Alvarado None-None 3.15 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.15
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
54%
📊
ATHLETICS
46%
DIAMONDBACKS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 90%
Under 0 10%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Athletics)
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

23.3%

Athletics Cover

76.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ARI By 1-2 runs

10.9%

ARI By 3-4 runs

5.6%

ATH By 1-2 runs

18.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
2.09
ARIZONA
5.01
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.9
C
Sim Athletics (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.1
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 ATH @ ARI 5 - 15
Jul 21, 2026 ATH @ ARI 5 - 6
Jul 20, 2026 ATH @ ARI 5 - 2
Aug 3, 2025 ARI @ ATH 6 - 4
Aug 2, 2025 ARI @ ATH 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720 ▲
OPS
.719
166
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +189.0% more
Athletics: 2.5 vs Arizona: 0.6
Walks (L5) +89.4% more
Athletics: 2.7 vs Arizona: 1.4
Total Bases (L5) +87.7% more
Athletics: 18.0 vs Arizona: 9.6
Hits (L5) +49.2% more
Athletics: 8.9 vs Arizona: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 2.1 1
ATH Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.9 / 5.9 11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.5 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 7.3 6.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 18.0 / 9.6 17.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.7 / 1.4 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
ARI
ATH
ARI
ML
59% 95-67
54% 87-74
54% 87-74
54% 86-74
ATS
52% 84-78
57% 91-70
50% 81-80
56% 89-71
TTL
54% 84-73-5
52% 80-73-8
42% 66-90-5
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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