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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

57-53  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Aug 1 • 10:10 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

58-52  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Ezequiel Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Ezequiel Duran

#20 | Shortstop
@
Eduard Bazardo
STARTING PITCHER

Eduard Bazardo

#83 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ezequiel Duran None-None -- -- -- --
Eduard Bazardo None-None 2.60 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.60
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
49%
📊
MARINERS
51%
RANGERS --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

50.3%

Mariners Cover

49.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.5%

TEX By 3-4 runs

13.7%

SEA By 1-2 runs

18.4%

SEA By 3-4 runs

13.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.9
TEXAS
4.87
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
3
TEXAS
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rangers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
C
Sim Mariners (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 10, 2026 TEX @ SEA 3 - 4
Sep 9, 2026 TEX @ SEA 2 - 3
Sep 8, 2026 TEX @ SEA 10 - 5
Jul 27, 2026 SEA @ TEX 3 - 7
Jul 26, 2026 SEA @ TEX 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.15 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.242 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.713 ▲
OPS
.693
183 ▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +53.0% more
Texas: 0.6 vs Seattle: 0.0
Walks (L5) +35.6% more
Texas: 3.4 vs Seattle: 2.2
Hits (L5) +14.7% more
Texas: 8.1 vs Seattle: 6.9
OPS (Season) +2.0%
Texas: 71.3% vs Seattle: 69.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 4.9 3
SEA Score 4.9 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 8.1 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 8.8 10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 13.5 / 12.4 11.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.4 0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
TEX
SEA
TEX
ML
50% 81-81
53% 86-76
52% 85-77
57% 91-70
ATS
60% 98-64
57% 92-70
59% 95-67
61% 98-63
TTL
56% 85-67-10
53% 78-70-14
53% 81-71-10
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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