TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
54-55 | Road
4
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
59-49 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Kelly
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Volpe
#11 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kelly | None-None | 5.93 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Anthony Volpe | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.93
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
45%
YANKEES
55%
RAYS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
18.9%
TB By 3-4 runs
14.4%
NYY By 1-2 runs
17.9%
NYY By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.34
TAMPA BAY
New York
4.06
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
New York
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
NYY @ TB
2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026
NYY @ TB
0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
TB @ NYY
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.728
OPS
▲
1.041
169
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Walks (L5)
+15.1% more
Tampa Bay: 4.2
vs
New York: 3.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+98.2% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
Errors (L5)
+89.0% more
New York: 1.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.3
4
NYY Score
4.1
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.7 / 7.9
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.0
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 9.4
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 12.9
15.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.5 / 4.2
0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
NYY
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TB
NYY
TB
ML
47%
76-85
58%
95-68
52%
85-77
58%
95-68
ATS
59%
95-66
60%
97-66
53%
86-76
55%
90-73
TTL
53%
81-73-7
47%
73-81-9
53%
82-72-7
51%
78-75-10
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