ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
45-62 | Road
12
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
57-52 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brent Suter
#39 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Suter | None-None | 3.02 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.72 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.02
ERA
Ldr 2.72
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
40%
REDS
60%
BRAVES
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.5%
ATL By 3-4 runs
18.6%
CIN By 1-2 runs
13.2%
CIN By 3-4 runs
7.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
5.3
ATLANTA
Cincinnati
3.18
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim
Reds (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CIN @ ATL
7 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
CIN @ ATL
2 - 3
Sep 22, 2026
CIN @ ATL
4 - 0
May 31, 2026
ATL @ CIN
4 - 6
May 30, 2026
ATL @ CIN
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.757
▲
OPS
.699
1
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+46.2% more
Atlanta: 1.0
vs
Cincinnati: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+20.1% more
Atlanta: 13.5
vs
Cincinnati: 10.8
Walks (L5)
+17.8% more
Atlanta: 4.1
vs
Cincinnati: 3.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+17.8% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
5.3
12
CIN Score
3.2
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.3
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.2 / 8.0
17.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.0
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.6 / 7.2
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 13.5
28.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.1
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ATL
CIN
ATL
ML
55%
88-71
46%
77-90
49%
79-81
54%
90-78
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
96-71
50%
80-80
52%
87-81
TTL
53%
81-73-5
53%
83-73-11
54%
83-72-5
49%
76-80-11
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