BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
58-51 | Road
13
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
51-56 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brayan Bello
#66 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zebby Matthews
#52 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello | None-None | 3.19 | -- | 7.0 | 4 |
| Zebby Matthews | None-None | 5.67 | -- | 4.1 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.19 Ldr
ERA
5.67
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.1
4
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
56%
TWINS
44%
RED SOX
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.3%
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4.86
BOSTON
Minnesota
3.86
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim
Twins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
MIN @ BOS
6 - 5
May 23, 2026
MIN @ BOS
4 - 2
May 22, 2026
MIN @ BOS
8 - 6
Apr 15, 2026
BOS @ MIN
9 - 5
Apr 14, 2026
BOS @ MIN
0 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Minnesota
MIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.409
OPS
▲
.720
2
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+20.9% more
Boston: 4.1
vs
Minnesota: 3.2
Total Bases (L5)
+20.8% more
Boston: 16.5
vs
Minnesota: 13.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+8.5% more
Boston: 8.7
vs
Minnesota: 7.9
Home Runs (Season)
+9250.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.9
13
MIN Score
3.9
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 8.6
5.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.2
1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 8.7
11.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 16.5
8.0 / 32.0
Walks
3.2 / 4.1
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
BOS
MIN
BOS
ML
52%
84-78
50%
80-80
50%
80-81
47%
76-87
ATS
59%
95-67
58%
93-67
59%
95-66
48%
79-84
TTL
51%
78-75-9
46%
72-83-5
53%
80-72-9
47%
74-83-6
Contextual Game News
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