ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
45-61 | Road
0
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
53-55 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 4.85 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 2.40 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.85
ERA
Ldr 2.40
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
43%
ROYALS
57%
BRAVES
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
30%
Under 0
70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
ATL By 1-2 runs
18.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
13.3%
KC By 1-2 runs
18.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
13.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.68
ATLANTA
Kansas City
4.76
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
KC @ ATL
4 - 1
Mar 28, 2026
KC @ ATL
2 - 6
Mar 27, 2026
KC @ ATL
0 - 6
Jul 30, 2025
ATL @ KC
0 - 1
Jul 29, 2025
ATL @ KC
6 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Kansas City
KC
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.757
▲
OPS
.718
1
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16900.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+27.6% more
Kansas City: 5.9
vs
Atlanta: 4.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+12.2% more
Kansas City: 7.0
vs
Atlanta: 6.2
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.4%
Kansas City: 24.7%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.7
0
KC Score
4.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 9.5
3.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 6.2
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
16.9 / 17.7
3.0 / 5.0
Walks
5.9 / 4.6
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
ATL
KC
ATL
ML
55%
89-72
46%
77-90
56%
90-70
54%
90-78
ATS
57%
91-70
57%
96-71
58%
93-67
52%
87-81
TTL
58%
90-64-7
53%
83-73-11
54%
83-70-7
49%
76-80-11
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