Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Padres NYM @ SD

NEW YORK

METSNYM

62-46  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, Jul 30 • 4:10 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

59-49  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Brett Baty
STARTING PITCHER

Brett Baty

#7 | Third Base
@
Gavin Sheets
STARTING PITCHER

Gavin Sheets

#30 | First Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brett Baty None-None -- -- -- --
Gavin Sheets None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
METS
53%
📊
PADRES
47%
METS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (San Diego)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

40.7%

Padres Cover

59.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

NYM By 1-2 runs

16.5%

NYM By 3-4 runs

10.8%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

16.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.34
NEW YORK
5.28
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 SD @ NYM 2 - 4
Aug 18, 2026 SD @ NYM 5 - 2
Aug 17, 2026 SD @ NYM 1 - 2
Jun 7, 2026 NYM @ SD 7 - 3
Jun 6, 2026 NYM @ SD 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.705
OPS
▲ .925
204 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +67.0% more
San Diego: 11.3 vs New York: 6.8
Total Bases (L5) +43.7% more
San Diego: 16.8 vs New York: 11.7
Runs per Game (Season) +39.2% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs New York: 4.3
OPS (Season) +22.0%
San Diego: 92.5% vs New York: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.3 0
SD Score 5.3 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 11.3 / 6.8 9.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 7.5 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.8 / 11.7 12.0 / 4.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.8 0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
NYM
SD
NYM
ML
51% 85-83
50% 79-80
51% 85-82
48% 76-83
ATS
54% 91-77
58% 93-66
55% 92-75
49% 78-81
TTL
51% 82-80-6
55% 80-66-13
54% 86-74-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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