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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

54-54  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Jul 30 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

58-49  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Kevin Kelly
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Kelly

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tim Hill
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Hill

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kevin Kelly None-None 6.00 -- -- --
Tim Hill None-None 2.72 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
6.00 ERA Ldr 2.72
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
46%
📊
YANKEES
54%
RAYS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

49.5%

Yankees Cover

50.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

TB By 1-2 runs

18.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

13.4%

NYY By 1-2 runs

18.5%

NYY By 3-4 runs

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.11
TAMPA BAY
4.16
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: 0.0
D
Sim Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 TB @ NYY 4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026 NYY @ TB 2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026 NYY @ TB 0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026 TB @ NYY 4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026 TB @ NYY 2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.54
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.728
OPS
▲ 1.041
169 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +98.2% more
New York: 9.0 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
Home Runs (L5) +38.0% more
New York: 1.3 vs Tampa Bay: 1.0
Errors (L5) +33.0% more
New York: 1.1 vs Tampa Bay: 0.8
Slugging Pct (Season) +19.2%
New York: 59.4% vs Tampa Bay: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 4.1 4
NYY Score 4.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 7.3 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 9.5 9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 11.5 / 12.4 19.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.8 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
NYY
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TB
NYY
TB
ML
47% 76-85
58% 95-68
52% 85-77
58% 95-68
ATS
59% 95-66
60% 97-66
53% 86-76
55% 90-73
TTL
53% 81-73-7
47% 73-81-9
53% 82-72-7
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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