Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Reds LAD @ CIN

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

63-45  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Jul 30 • 7:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

56-52  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Emmet Sheehan
STARTING PITCHER

Emmet Sheehan

#80 | Starting Pitcher
@
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Emmet Sheehan None-None 3.60 -- 3.2 5
Sam Moll None-None 5.19 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.60 Ldr ERA 5.19
-- WHIP --
3.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
57%
📊
REDS
43%
DODGERS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 80%
Under 0 20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Cincinnati)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

42.0%

Reds Cover

58.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.8%

LAD By 3-4 runs

11.2%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.5%

CIN By 3-4 runs

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.56
LOS ANGELES
4.37
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
B
Sim Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 LAD @ CIN 8 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 LAD @ CIN 2 - 6
Sep 15, 2026 LAD @ CIN 4 - 0
Sep 14, 2026 LAD @ CIN 4 - 1
Sep 9, 2026 CIN @ LAD 1 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.762 ▲
OPS
.699
204
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +82.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.1 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +44.6% more
Cincinnati: 11.9 vs Los Angeles: 8.2
Home Runs (Season) +4.4% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Los Angeles: 204.0
Hits (L5) +26.5% more
Los Angeles: 9.3 vs Cincinnati: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 3.6 2
CIN Score 4.4 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.8 / 9.3 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.9 / 8.2 8.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 10.7 / 14.3 11.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.1 / 4.0 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
LAD
CIN
LAD
ML
55% 88-71
56% 92-73
49% 79-81
48% 79-87
ATS
54% 86-73
59% 98-67
50% 80-80
43% 72-94
TTL
53% 81-73-5
48% 77-82-6
54% 83-72-5
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 12 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 6 hours, 1 minute ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 8 minutes ago
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
headtopics 18 hours, 12 minutes ago
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…
si 23 hours, 51 minutes ago