TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
54-53 | Road
5
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
57-49 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Kelly
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Max Fried
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kelly | None-None | 6.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Max Fried | None-None | 2.62 | -- | 6.2 | 9 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.00
ERA
Ldr 2.62
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
47%
YANKEES
53%
RAYS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
TB By 1-2 runs
18.0%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.8%
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.8%
NYY By 3-4 runs
14.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.91
TAMPA BAY
New York
4.17
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
NYY @ TB
2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026
NYY @ TB
0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
TB @ NYY
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.728
OPS
▲
1.041
169
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+98.2% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
Errors (L5)
+50.0% more
New York: 0.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+34.7% more
New York: 4.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.1
Slugging Pct (Season)
+19.2%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Tampa Bay: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.9
5
NYY Score
4.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
2.0 / 2.0
Hits
6.9 / 7.5
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.9
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 8.8
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 11.1
13.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.2 / 3.1
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
NYY
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TB
NYY
TB
ML
47%
76-85
58%
95-68
52%
85-77
58%
95-68
ATS
59%
95-66
60%
97-66
53%
86-76
55%
90-73
TTL
53%
81-73-7
47%
73-81-9
53%
82-72-7
51%
78-75-10
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