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LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

62-45  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Jul 29 • 7:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

56-51  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
@
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Alex Vesia None-None 2.42 -- 1.0 2
Emilio Pagan None-None 2.78 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.42 Ldr ERA 2.78
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
56%
📊
REDS
44%
DODGERS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 74%
Under 0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cincinnati)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

40.1%

Reds Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.65
LOS ANGELES
4.65
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
6
LOS ANGELES
4
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Reds Loss
44% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim Dodgers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 LAD @ CIN 8 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 LAD @ CIN 2 - 6
Sep 15, 2026 LAD @ CIN 4 - 0
Sep 14, 2026 LAD @ CIN 4 - 1
Sep 9, 2026 CIN @ LAD 1 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.762 ▲
OPS
.699
204
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +23.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.6 vs Los Angeles: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5) +15.9% more
Cincinnati: 10.8 vs Los Angeles: 9.3
Home Runs (Season) +4.4% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Los Angeles: 204.0
Home Runs (L5) +73.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.0 vs Cincinnati: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 3.7 5
CIN Score 4.7 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 8.4 6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.8 / 9.3 14.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 9.0 / 13.4 14.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.5 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
LAD
CIN
LAD
ML
55% 88-71
56% 92-73
49% 79-81
48% 79-87
ATS
54% 86-73
59% 98-67
50% 80-80
43% 72-94
TTL
53% 81-73-5
48% 77-82-6
54% 83-72-5
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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