CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
62-44 | Road
3
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
63-43 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Hollowell
#46 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Ashby
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Hollowell | None-None | 1.23 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Aaron Ashby | None-None | 2.05 | -- | 3.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.23 Ldr
ERA
2.05
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.1
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
49%
BREWERS
51%
CUBS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
CHC By 1-2 runs
17.5%
CHC By 3-4 runs
12.1%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.1%
MIL By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.68
CHICAGO
Milwaukee
5.17
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
CHC @ MIL
6 - 8
Sep 8, 2026
CHC @ MIL
3 - 4
Sep 7, 2026
CHC @ MIL
3 - 4
Sep 3, 2026
MIL @ CHC
1 - 2
Sep 2, 2026
MIL @ CHC
9 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.374
OPS
▲
.743
0
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+15400.0% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+464.0% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+91.7% more
Milwaukee: 10.4
vs
Chicago: 5.4
Walks (L5)
+77.5% more
Milwaukee: 4.2
vs
Chicago: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.7
3
MIL Score
5.2
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.5
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.5 / 7.6
11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.4 / 5.4
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 11.0
17.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.2 / 2.4
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CHC
MIL
CHC
ML
62%
101-61
58%
93-68
52%
84-78
51%
82-79
ATS
58%
94-68
61%
97-63-1
48%
78-84
47%
75-85-1
TTL
40%
62-92-8
52%
81-74-6
50%
77-77-8
46%
72-83-6
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