Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Twins BOS @ MIN

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

57-51  |  Road

8
FINAL
Tue, Jul 29 • 7:40 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

51-55  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kody Funderburk
STARTING PITCHER

Kody Funderburk

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aroldis Chapman None-None 1.29 -- 0.1 1
Kody Funderburk None-None 7.41 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.29 Ldr ERA 7.41
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
55%
📊
TWINS
45%
RED SOX --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 71%
Under 0 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

61.8%

Twins Cover

38.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

16.8%

MIN By 1-2 runs

15.8%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.83
BOSTON
3.63
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
C
Sim Twins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 24, 2026 MIN @ BOS 6 - 5
May 23, 2026 MIN @ BOS 4 - 2
May 22, 2026 MIN @ BOS 8 - 6
Apr 15, 2026 BOS @ MIN 9 - 5
Apr 14, 2026 BOS @ MIN 0 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Minnesota MIN
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.409
OPS
▲ .720
2
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +34.8% more
Boston: 5.1 vs Minnesota: 3.3
Total Bases (L5) +12.5% more
Boston: 13.3 vs Minnesota: 11.6
Home Runs (Season) +9250.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +356.0% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.8 8
MIN Score 3.6 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.1 2.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.9 / 7.9 10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.8 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 8.0 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 13.3 16.0 / 23.0
Walks 3.3 / 5.1 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
BOS
MIN
BOS
ML
52% 84-78
50% 80-80
50% 80-81
47% 76-87
ATS
59% 95-67
58% 93-67
59% 95-66
48% 79-84
TTL
51% 78-75-9
46% 72-83-5
53% 80-72-9
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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