ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
45-60 | Road
6
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
52-55 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ozzie Albies
#1 | Second Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.45
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
44%
ROYALS
56%
BRAVES
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.4%
ATL By 3-4 runs
15.5%
KC By 1-2 runs
17.0%
KC By 3-4 runs
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.73
ATLANTA
Kansas City
4.03
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Kansas City
7
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Loss
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim
Royals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
KC @ ATL
4 - 1
Mar 28, 2026
KC @ ATL
2 - 6
Mar 27, 2026
KC @ ATL
0 - 6
Jul 30, 2025
ATL @ KC
0 - 1
Jul 29, 2025
ATL @ KC
6 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Kansas City
KC
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.757
▲
OPS
.718
1
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+14.8% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Kansas City: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+3.9%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Kansas City: 71.8%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.1%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Kansas City: 40.2%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.8%
Atlanta: 32.4%
vs
Kansas City: 31.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.7
6
KC Score
4.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.2
12.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.4
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 7.4
7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 14.1
19.0 / 25.0
Walks
6.4 / 4.5
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
ATL
KC
ATL
ML
55%
89-72
46%
77-90
56%
90-70
54%
90-78
ATS
57%
91-70
57%
96-71
58%
93-67
52%
87-81
TTL
58%
90-64-7
53%
83-73-11
54%
83-70-7
49%
76-80-11
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