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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

50-55  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Jul 29 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

55-53  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

John King

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
John King None-None 5.18 -- 0.2 --
Kyle Leahy None-None 2.79 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
5.18 ERA Ldr 2.79
-- WHIP --
0.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
47%
📊
CARDINALS
53%
MARLINS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

59.9%

Cardinals Cover

40.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIA By 3-4 runs

16.3%

STL By 1-2 runs

16.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.95
MIAMI
3.95
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
MIAMI
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marlins Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marlins (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 28, 2026 MIA @ STL 1 - 2
Jun 27, 2026 MIA @ STL 5 - 1
Jun 26, 2026 MIA @ STL 4 - 0
Apr 22, 2026 STL @ MIA 1 - 4
Apr 21, 2026 STL @ MIA 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.727 ▲
OPS
.691
168 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +53.4% more
Miami: 1.3 vs St. Louis: 0.6
Walks (L5) +34.8% more
Miami: 3.1 vs St. Louis: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5) +15.1% more
Miami: 7.7 vs St. Louis: 6.6
Home Runs (L5) +12.0% more
Miami: 0.9 vs St. Louis: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 5.0 5
STL Score 4.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 6.7 4.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 7.7 5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 11.2 4.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.0 / 3.1 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
MIA
STL
MIA
ML
53% 85-74
48% 78-84
52% 84-77
55% 88-72
ATS
56% 89-70
56% 91-71
53% 85-76
54% 86-74
TTL
46% 68-81-10
56% 88-69-5
50% 76-75-10
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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