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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

44-62  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Jul 29 • 8:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

60-47  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
@
Josh Hader
STARTING PITCHER

Josh Hader

#71 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
Josh Hader None-None 2.22 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.22
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
36%
📊
ASTROS
64%
NATIONALS --
ASTROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 AstrosHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

81.0%

Astros Cover

19.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

17.4%

WSH By 3-4 runs

19.7%

HOU By 1-2 runs

9.2%

HOU By 3-4 runs

4.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.75
WASHINGTON
2.24
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
4
WASHINGTON
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Loss
36% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.5
B
Sim Astros (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 8, 2026 HOU @ WSH 2 - 8
Jul 7, 2026 HOU @ WSH 6 - 3
Jul 6, 2026 HOU @ WSH 11 - 12
Jul 30, 2025 WSH @ HOU 1 - 9
Jul 29, 2025 WSH @ HOU 4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.744 ▲
OPS
.582
210 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.1% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +77.0% more
Washington: 1.0 vs Houston: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season) +40.8% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Houston: 3.0
Total Bases (L5) +31.0% more
Washington: 12.3 vs Houston: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 5.8 4
HOU Score 2.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.8 / 7.3 13.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.2 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 12.3 / 5.9 14.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 8.5 / 12.3 17.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.3 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
WSH
HOU
WSH
ML
50% 81-82
57% 92-69
47% 77-87
54% 87-74
ATS
56% 91-72
58% 93-68
55% 90-74
57% 91-70
TTL
45% 70-84-9
50% 77-78-6
45% 69-86-9
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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