Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Padres NYM @ SD

NEW YORK

METSNYM

62-45  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Jul 29 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

58-49  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Yuki Matsui
STARTING PITCHER

Yuki Matsui

#1 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sean Manaea None-None 2.08 -- 5.0 4
Yuki Matsui None-None 4.76 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.08 Ldr ERA 4.76
-- WHIP --
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
54%
📊
PADRES
46%
METS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

55.6%

Padres Cover

44.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.2%

NYM By 3-4 runs

15.2%

SD By 1-2 runs

17.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

11.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.97
NEW YORK
4.41
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 SD @ NYM 2 - 4
Aug 18, 2026 SD @ NYM 5 - 2
Aug 17, 2026 SD @ NYM 1 - 2
Jun 7, 2026 NYM @ SD 7 - 3
Jun 6, 2026 NYM @ SD 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.705
OPS
▲ .925
204 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +49.7% more
New York: 1.5 vs San Diego: 0.7
Errors (L5) +20.0% more
New York: 0.4 vs San Diego: 0.2
Walks (L5) +10.9% more
New York: 4.1 vs San Diego: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.0 1
SD Score 4.4 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 12.5 / 8.2 9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 8.7 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 17.2 / 15.5 16.0 / 4.0
Walks 3.7 / 4.1 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
NYM
SD
NYM
ML
51% 85-83
50% 79-80
51% 85-82
48% 76-83
ATS
54% 91-77
58% 93-66
55% 92-75
49% 78-81
TTL
51% 82-80-6
55% 80-66-13
54% 86-74-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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