TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
53-53 | Road
4
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
57-48 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Cleavinger
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Hill
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Cleavinger | None-None | 2.41 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Tim Hill | None-None | 2.77 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.41 Ldr
ERA
2.77
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
46%
YANKEES
54%
RAYS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
TB By 1-2 runs
17.8%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.5%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.0%
NYY By 3-4 runs
14.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.92
TAMPA BAY
New York
4.28
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
NYY @ TB
2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026
NYY @ TB
0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026
TB @ NYY
4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
TB @ NYY
2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.728
OPS
▲
1.041
169
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+98.2% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
Errors (L5)
+74.0% more
New York: 1.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.3
Home Runs (L5)
+61.0% more
New York: 1.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+44.9% more
New York: 13.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.9
4
NYY Score
4.3
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 5.7
6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 8.2
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 9.1
6.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.7
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
NYY
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TB
NYY
TB
ML
47%
76-85
58%
95-68
52%
85-77
58%
95-68
ATS
59%
95-66
60%
97-66
53%
86-76
55%
90-73
TTL
53%
81-73-7
47%
73-81-9
53%
82-72-7
51%
78-75-10
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …