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LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

61-45  |  Road

5
FINAL
Mon, Jul 28 • 7:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

56-50  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jack Dreyer
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Dreyer

#86 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jack Dreyer None-None 2.91 -- 0.1 --
Sam Moll None-None 5.40 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.91 Ldr ERA 5.40
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
55%
📊
REDS
45%
DODGERS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 74%
Under 0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Cincinnati)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

38.0%

Reds Cover

62.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

LAD By 1-2 runs

15.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.0%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.72
LOS ANGELES
4.94
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
B
Sim Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 LAD @ CIN 8 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 LAD @ CIN 2 - 6
Sep 15, 2026 LAD @ CIN 4 - 0
Sep 14, 2026 LAD @ CIN 4 - 1
Sep 9, 2026 CIN @ LAD 1 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.762 ▲
OPS
.699
204
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +21.8% more
Cincinnati: 9.7 vs Los Angeles: 8.0
Home Runs (Season) +4.4% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Los Angeles: 204.0
Home Runs (L5) +74.1% more
Los Angeles: 1.5 vs Cincinnati: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +29.2% more
Los Angeles: 14.1 vs Cincinnati: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 3.7 5
CIN Score 4.9 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 8.1 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.5 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.7 / 8.0 13.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 14.1 7.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.6 / 2.7 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
LAD
CIN
LAD
ML
55% 88-71
56% 92-73
49% 79-81
48% 79-87
ATS
54% 86-73
59% 98-67
50% 80-80
43% 72-94
TTL
53% 81-73-5
48% 77-82-6
54% 83-72-5
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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