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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

57-50  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Jul 28 • 7:40 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

50-55  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Greg Weissert
STARTING PITCHER

Greg Weissert

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Royce Lewis
STARTING PITCHER

Royce Lewis

#23 | First Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Greg Weissert None-None 2.93 -- 1.1 --
Royce Lewis None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.93 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
56%
📊
TWINS
44%
RED SOX --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 74%
Under 0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

71.7%

Twins Cover

28.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.4%

BOS By 3-4 runs

18.9%

MIN By 1-2 runs

12.7%

MIN By 3-4 runs

7.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.09
BOSTON
2.8
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.3
B
Sim Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 24, 2026 MIN @ BOS 6 - 5
May 23, 2026 MIN @ BOS 4 - 2
May 22, 2026 MIN @ BOS 8 - 6
Apr 15, 2026 BOS @ MIN 9 - 5
Apr 14, 2026 BOS @ MIN 0 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Minnesota MIN
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.409
OPS
▲ .720
2
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +35.6% more
Boston: 4.6 vs Minnesota: 3.0
Home Runs (L5) +9.0% more
Boston: 0.8 vs Minnesota: 0.7
Home Runs (Season) +9250.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +356.0% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 5.1 4
MIN Score 2.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 6.9 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 9.0 10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.0 / 12.4 11.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.0 / 4.6 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
BOS
MIN
BOS
ML
52% 84-78
50% 80-80
50% 80-81
47% 76-87
ATS
59% 95-67
58% 93-67
59% 95-66
48% 79-84
TTL
51% 78-75-9
46% 72-83-5
53% 80-72-9
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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