MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
50-54 | Road
1
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
54-53 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Graham Pauley
#21 | Third Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Svanson
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Pauley | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Matt Svanson | None-None | 3.33 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.33
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
48%
CARDINALS
52%
MARLINS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
17.7%
STL By 1-2 runs
14.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5.15
MIAMI
St. Louis
3.56
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Miami
5
MIAMI
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
A
Sim
Marlins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
MIA @ STL
1 - 2
Jun 27, 2026
MIA @ STL
5 - 1
Jun 26, 2026
MIA @ STL
4 - 0
Apr 22, 2026
STL @ MIA
1 - 4
Apr 21, 2026
STL @ MIA
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.727
▲
OPS
.691
168
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+49.3% more
Miami: 1.4
vs
St. Louis: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+30.4% more
Miami: 14.8
vs
St. Louis: 10.3
Hits (L5)
+21.2% more
Miami: 8.0
vs
St. Louis: 6.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.6% more
Miami: 8.1
vs
St. Louis: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.2
1
STL Score
3.6
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.5
0.0 / 3.0
Hits
6.3 / 8.0
8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.8 / 8.1
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 14.8
17.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.1 / 2.2
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
MIA
STL
MIA
ML
53%
85-74
48%
78-84
52%
84-77
55%
88-72
ATS
56%
89-70
56%
91-71
53%
85-76
54%
86-74
TTL
46%
68-81-10
56%
88-69-5
50%
76-75-10
53%
82-73-5
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