WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
43-62 | Road
2
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
60-46 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Young
#30 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Young | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 2.27 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.27
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
35%
ASTROS
65%
NATIONALS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
69%
Under 0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
17.2%
WSH By 3-4 runs
19.7%
HOU By 1-2 runs
8.8%
HOU By 3-4 runs
4.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
6.09
WASHINGTON
Houston
2.45
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Win
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.6
C
Sim
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 8, 2026
HOU @ WSH
2 - 8
Jul 7, 2026
HOU @ WSH
6 - 3
Jul 6, 2026
HOU @ WSH
11 - 12
Jul 30, 2025
WSH @ HOU
1 - 9
Jul 29, 2025
WSH @ HOU
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.744
▲
OPS
.582
210
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.1% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+66.0% more
Washington: 1.0
vs
Houston: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+40.8% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Houston: 3.0
Total Bases (L5)
+30.3% more
Washington: 13.9
vs
Houston: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
6.1
2
HOU Score
2.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.7 / 8.9
4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 5.3
19.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
9.7 / 13.9
6.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.4
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
WSH
HOU
WSH
ML
50%
81-82
57%
92-69
47%
77-87
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
91-72
58%
93-68
55%
90-74
57%
91-70
TTL
45%
70-84-9
50%
77-78-6
45%
69-86-9
42%
65-90-6
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