Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Padres NYM @ SD

NEW YORK

METSNYM

62-44  |  Road

6
FINAL
Mon, Jul 28 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

57-49  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
@
Jeremiah Estrada
STARTING PITCHER

Jeremiah Estrada

#56 | RP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
Jeremiah Estrada None-None 2.64 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.64
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
METS
55%
📊
PADRES
45%
METS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 42%
Under 0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

62.5%

Padres Cover

37.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

17.0%

SD By 1-2 runs

15.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

9.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.17
NEW YORK
3.9
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
B
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 SD @ NYM 2 - 4
Aug 18, 2026 SD @ NYM 5 - 2
Aug 17, 2026 SD @ NYM 1 - 2
Jun 7, 2026 NYM @ SD 7 - 3
Jun 6, 2026 NYM @ SD 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.705
OPS
▲ .925
204 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +49.2% more
New York: 1.2 vs San Diego: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5) +38.3% more
New York: 8.6 vs San Diego: 5.3
Walks (L5) +28.2% more
New York: 4.2 vs San Diego: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.2 6
SD Score 3.9 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 11.7 / 9.3 14.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 5.3 / 8.6 15.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 16.3 / 16.8 19.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.0 / 4.2 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
NYM
SD
NYM
ML
51% 85-83
50% 79-80
51% 85-82
48% 76-83
ATS
54% 91-77
58% 93-66
55% 92-75
49% 78-81
TTL
51% 82-80-6
55% 80-66-13
54% 86-74-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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