Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Giants PIT @ SF

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

44-62  |  Road

6
FINAL
Mon, Jul 28 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

54-52  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Yohan Ramirez
STARTING PITCHER

Yohan Ramirez

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Camilo Doval
STARTING PITCHER

Camilo Doval

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yohan Ramirez None-None 4.00 -- 2.1 1
Camilo Doval None-None 3.15 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.00 ERA Ldr 3.15
-- WHIP --
2.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
41%
📊
GIANTS
59%
PIRATES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (San Francisco)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

47.4%

Giants Cover

52.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

PIT By 1-2 runs

18.0%

PIT By 3-4 runs

12.8%

SF By 1-2 runs

18.8%

SF By 3-4 runs

14.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2.92
PITTSBURGH
3.18
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 SF @ PIT 2 - 5
Sep 2, 2026 SF @ PIT 5 - 4
Sep 1, 2026 SF @ PIT 12 - 13
May 10, 2026 PIT @ SF 6 - 7
May 9, 2026 PIT @ SF 13 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.734 ▲
OPS
.706
186 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +109.6% more
San Francisco: 3.7 vs Pittsburgh: 1.8
Home Runs (L5) +79.0% more
San Francisco: 1.2 vs Pittsburgh: 0.4
Errors (L5) +49.0% more
San Francisco: 0.6 vs Pittsburgh: 0.1
Total Bases (L5) +22.7% more
San Francisco: 13.4 vs Pittsburgh: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 2.9 6
SF Score 3.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 7.2 11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.4 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 10.8 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 10.9 16.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.7 / 1.8 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
PIT
SF
PIT
ML
49% 79-81
52% 82-77
53% 85-75
52% 85-78
ATS
62% 100-60
54% 86-73
52% 83-77
50% 81-82
TTL
55% 82-68-10
47% 72-81-6
46% 68-81-11
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 1 hour, 19 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 29 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour, 37 minutes ago
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
players_bio 7 hours, 15 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 7 hours, 25 minutes ago