PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
60-44 | Road
3
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
56-48 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Hill
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | None-None | 2.56 | -- | 5.2 | 8 |
| Tim Hill | None-None | 2.83 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.56 Ldr
ERA
2.83
--
WHIP
--
5.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
54%
YANKEES
46%
PHILLIES
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.5%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.1%
NYY By 1-2 runs
16.5%
NYY By 3-4 runs
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
6.19
PHILADELPHIA
New York
5.27
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
New York
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.5
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
NYY @ PHI
4 - 11
Jul 25, 2026
NYY @ PHI
3 - 1
Jul 24, 2026
NYY @ PHI
1 - 0
Jul 27, 2025
PHI @ NYY
3 - 4
Jul 26, 2025
PHI @ NYY
9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
New York
NYY
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.438
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.724
OPS
▲
1.041
3
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+37.0% more
Philadelphia: 11.3
vs
New York: 7.1
Total Bases (L5)
+29.8% more
Philadelphia: 21.8
vs
New York: 15.3
Hits (L5)
+28.2% more
Philadelphia: 11.2
vs
New York: 8.0
Home Runs (L5)
+8.5% more
Philadelphia: 2.5
vs
New York: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
6.2
3
NYY Score
5.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.6 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.0 / 11.2
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 2.5
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 11.3
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.3 / 21.8
9.0 / 14.0
Walks
5.3 / 3.2
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
PHI
NYY
PHI
ML
47%
76-85
59%
97-67
52%
85-77
49%
80-84
ATS
59%
95-66
65%
107-57
53%
86-76
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
81-73-7
57%
88-67-9
53%
82-72-7
51%
78-76-9
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