TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
53-52 | Road
1
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
55-50 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ian Seymour
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Seymour | None-None | 1.86 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.64 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.86 Ldr
ERA
2.64
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
48%
REDS
52%
RAYS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
TB By 1-2 runs
13.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
7.6%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.5%
CIN By 3-4 runs
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.41
TAMPA BAY
Cincinnati
5.5
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
C
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 22, 2026
CIN @ TB
1 - 6
Apr 21, 2026
CIN @ TB
12 - 6
Apr 20, 2026
CIN @ TB
6 - 1
Jul 27, 2025
TB @ CIN
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2025
TB @ CIN
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.728
▲
OPS
.699
169
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+31.8% more
Cincinnati: 9.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.0
Home Runs (Season)
+26.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Total Bases (L5)
+17.1% more
Cincinnati: 12.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 10.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.0% more
Cincinnati: 9.5
vs
Tampa Bay: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.4
1
CIN Score
5.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 7.0
5.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 8.3
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 10.7
5.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.6
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
TB
CIN
TB
ML
55%
88-71
58%
95-68
49%
79-81
58%
95-68
ATS
54%
86-73
60%
97-66
50%
80-80
55%
90-73
TTL
53%
81-73-5
47%
73-81-9
54%
83-72-5
51%
78-75-10
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