MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
50-53 | Road
2
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
61-43 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Gibson
#58 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Megill
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Gibson | None-None | 2.84 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Trevor Megill | None-None | 2.21 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.84
ERA
Ldr 2.21
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
40%
BREWERS
60%
MARLINS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.4%
MIA By 3-4 runs
15.6%
MIL By 1-2 runs
17.0%
MIL By 3-4 runs
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5.24
MIAMI
Milwaukee
4.53
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Miami
5
MIAMI
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim
Marlins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
MIA @ MIL
1 - 3
Jul 18, 2026
MIA @ MIL
6 - 8
Jul 17, 2026
MIA @ MIL
1 - 2
Apr 19, 2026
MIL @ MIA
3 - 5
Apr 18, 2026
MIL @ MIA
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.727
OPS
▲
.743
168
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+56.7% more
Miami: 1.6
vs
Milwaukee: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+13.2% more
Miami: 16.3
vs
Milwaukee: 14.1
Home Runs (Season)
+8.3% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Milwaukee: 154.0
Walks (L5)
+147.3% more
Milwaukee: 3.2
vs
Miami: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.2
2
MIL Score
4.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.4 / 9.0
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 7.6
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 16.3
13.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.2 / 1.3
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
MIA
MIL
MIA
ML
62%
101-61
48%
78-84
52%
84-78
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
94-68
56%
91-71
48%
78-84
54%
86-74
TTL
40%
62-92-8
56%
88-69-5
50%
77-77-8
53%
82-73-5
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