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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

42-62  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sun, Jul 27 • 2:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

50-54  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jake Irvin
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Irvin

#27 | Starting Pitcher
@
Travis Adams
STARTING PITCHER

Travis Adams

#45 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jake Irvin None-None 4.69 -- 7.0 2
Travis Adams None-None 8.03 -- 3.1 3
None-None W-L None-None
4.69 Ldr ERA 8.03
-- WHIP --
7.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 3.1
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
42%
📊
TWINS
58%
NATIONALS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

50.8%

Twins Cover

49.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

18.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

13.8%

MIN By 1-2 runs

18.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.1
WASHINGTON
4.02
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Win
42% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
C
Sim Twins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 7, 2026 MIN @ WSH 5 - 7
May 6, 2026 MIN @ WSH 2 - 15
May 5, 2026 MIN @ WSH 11 - 3
Jul 27, 2025 WSH @ MIN 7 - 2
Jul 26, 2025 WSH @ MIN 9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.744 ▲
OPS
.720
210 ▲
Home Runs
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +47.0% more
Washington: 1.0 vs Minnesota: 0.5
Walks (L5) +31.7% more
Washington: 3.6 vs Minnesota: 2.5
Home Runs (Season) +11.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Minnesota: 187.0
Runs per Game (Season) +10.1% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Minnesota: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.1 7
MIN Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.3 / 7.8 7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 6.5 7.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 12.8 11.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.6 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
WSH
MIN
WSH
ML
52% 84-78
57% 92-69
50% 80-81
54% 87-74
ATS
59% 95-67
58% 93-68
59% 95-66
57% 91-70
TTL
51% 78-75-9
50% 77-78-6
53% 80-72-9
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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