Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Cardinals SD @ STL

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

56-49  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Jul 27 • 2:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

54-52  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Michael McGreevy
STARTING PITCHER

Michael McGreevy

#36 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Wandy Peralta None-None 3.38 -- 0.2 --
Michael McGreevy None-None 4.91 -- 4.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.38 Ldr ERA 4.91
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
52%
📊
CARDINALS
48%
PADRES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 71%
Under 0 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (St. Louis)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

41.2%

Cardinals Cover

58.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

SD By 1-2 runs

16.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

10.9%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.5%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.17
SAN DIEGO
4.06
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.2
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 SD @ STL 6 - 1
Jun 16, 2026 SD @ STL 2 - 3
Jun 15, 2026 SD @ STL 0 - 3
May 10, 2026 STL @ SD 2 - 3
May 9, 2026 STL @ SD 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
St. Louis STL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.925 ▲
OPS
.691
4
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4075.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5) +43.0% more
St. Louis: 0.9 vs San Diego: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +32.8% more
St. Louis: 7.3 vs San Diego: 5.5
Home Runs (L5) +16.0% more
St. Louis: 0.6 vs San Diego: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.2 9
STL Score 4.1 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.5 / 9.6 6.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 5.5 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 13.5 11.0 / 22.0
Walks 1.6 / 2.6 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
SD
STL
SD
ML
53% 85-74
51% 85-83
52% 84-77
51% 85-82
ATS
56% 89-70
54% 91-77
53% 85-76
55% 92-75
TTL
46% 68-81-10
51% 82-80-6
50% 76-75-10
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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