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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

59-44  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Jul 26 • 1:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

56-47  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Alan Rangel
STARTING PITCHER

Alan Rangel

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jasson Dominguez
STARTING PITCHER

Jasson Dominguez

#24 | Right Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Alan Rangel None-None 3.00 -- 1.0 1
Jasson Dominguez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.00 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
53%
📊
YANKEES
47%
PHILLIES --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

52.0%

Yankees Cover

48.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

18.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

14.1%

NYY By 1-2 runs

18.1%

NYY By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.62
PHILADELPHIA
5.42
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim Yankees (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 26, 2026 NYY @ PHI 4 - 11
Jul 25, 2026 NYY @ PHI 3 - 1
Jul 24, 2026 NYY @ PHI 1 - 0
Jul 27, 2025 PHI @ NYY 3 - 4
Jul 26, 2025 PHI @ NYY 9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
New York NYY
2 ▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.438
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.724
OPS
▲ 1.041
3 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +38.9% more
Philadelphia: 11.0 vs New York: 6.7
Hits (L5) +26.7% more
Philadelphia: 10.3 vs New York: 7.6
Total Bases (L5) +18.1% more
Philadelphia: 20.7 vs New York: 16.9
Errors (L5) +183.0% more
New York: 1.9 vs Philadelphia: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 5.6 9
NYY Score 5.4 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.9 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 10.3 9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 2.9 / 2.7 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 11.0 8.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 16.9 / 20.7 12.0 / 24.0
Walks 4.4 / 2.3 7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
PHI
NYY
PHI
ML
47% 76-85
59% 97-67
52% 85-77
49% 80-84
ATS
59% 95-66
65% 107-57
53% 86-76
51% 83-81
TTL
53% 81-73-7
57% 88-67-9
53% 82-72-7
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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