Home / MLB Projections MLB / Nationals @ Twins WSH @ MIN

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

41-62  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Jul 26 • 7:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

50-53  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
@
Kody Funderburk
STARTING PITCHER

Kody Funderburk

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
Kody Funderburk None-None 7.80 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 7.80
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
41%
📊
TWINS
59%
NATIONALS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Minnesota)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

40.7%

Twins Cover

59.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.5%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.8%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

16.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.35
WASHINGTON
4.29
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
6
WASHINGTON
4
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Twins Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Twins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim Nationals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 7, 2026 MIN @ WSH 5 - 7
May 6, 2026 MIN @ WSH 2 - 15
May 5, 2026 MIN @ WSH 11 - 3
Jul 27, 2025 WSH @ MIN 7 - 2
Jul 26, 2025 WSH @ MIN 9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.744 ▲
OPS
.720
210 ▲
Home Runs
187
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +46.2% more
Minnesota: 9.1 vs Washington: 6.2
Home Runs (L5) +28.0% more
Minnesota: 0.7 vs Washington: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +15.3% more
Minnesota: 10.6 vs Washington: 9.2
Hits (L5) +12.0% more
Minnesota: 6.4 vs Washington: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.4 9
MIN Score 4.3 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.4 / 5.7 12.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 6.2 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 9.2 16.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.7 / 4.4 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
WSH
MIN
WSH
ML
52% 84-78
57% 92-69
50% 80-81
54% 87-74
ATS
59% 95-67
58% 93-68
59% 95-66
57% 91-70
TTL
51% 78-75-9
50% 77-78-6
53% 80-72-9
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 0 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 7 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 2 minutes ago