ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
44-62 | Road
5
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
60-44 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Lopez
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Lopez | None-None | 4.29 | -- | 4.1 | 4 |
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 1.75 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.29
ERA
Ldr 1.75
--
WHIP
--
4.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
34%
ASTROS
66%
ATHLETICS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATH By 3-4 runs
16.6%
HOU By 1-2 runs
16.1%
HOU By 3-4 runs
10.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
5.3
ATHLETICS
Houston
4.2
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Athletics
6
ATHLETICS
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Athletics
Win
34% Win Prob
D
Sim
Athletics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Athletics (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim
Athletics (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
HOU @ ATH
9 - 0
Sep 26, 2026
HOU @ ATH
13 - 2
Sep 25, 2026
HOU @ ATH
5 - 6
Sep 24, 2026
HOU @ ATH
7 - 5
Aug 23, 2026
ATH @ HOU
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.719
▲
OPS
.582
194
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.9% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+72.7% more
Athletics: 2.6
vs
Houston: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+46.0% more
Athletics: 21.8
vs
Houston: 11.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+30.4% more
Athletics: 4.3
vs
Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
5.3
5
HOU Score
4.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.0
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 11.3
4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 2.6
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 8.2
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 21.8
5.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.0 / 1.8
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ATH
HOU
ATH
ML
50%
81-82
59%
95-67
47%
77-87
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
91-72
52%
84-78
55%
90-74
50%
81-80
TTL
45%
70-84-9
54%
84-73-5
45%
69-86-9
42%
66-90-5
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