Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Red Sox LAD @ BOS

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

61-43  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Jul 26 • 7:15 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

55-50  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Will Klein
STARTING PITCHER

Will Klein

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Will Klein None-None 3.38 -- 1.0 1
Aroldis Chapman None-None 1.31 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.38 ERA Ldr 1.31
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
56%
📊
RED SOX
44%
DODGERS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

60.8%

Red Sox Cover

39.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.6%

BOS By 1-2 runs

16.1%

BOS By 3-4 runs

10.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.68
LOS ANGELES
4.58
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
A
Sim Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 BOS @ LAD 8 - 4
Aug 1, 2026 BOS @ LAD 3 - 2
Jul 31, 2026 BOS @ LAD 9 - 4
Jul 27, 2025 LAD @ BOS 3 - 4
Jul 26, 2025 LAD @ BOS 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.762 ▲
OPS
.409
204 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +79.8% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5) +43.4% more
Los Angeles: 3.9 vs Boston: 2.2
Home Runs (L5) +39.1% more
Los Angeles: 1.6 vs Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.7 2
BOS Score 4.6 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.0 / 8.6 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.6 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 10.1 15.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 11.2 / 14.5 17.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.9 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
LAD
BOS
LAD
ML
50% 80-80
56% 92-73
47% 76-87
48% 79-87
ATS
58% 93-67
59% 98-67
48% 79-84
43% 72-94
TTL
46% 72-83-5
48% 77-82-6
47% 74-83-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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