SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
55-49 | Road
3
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
54-51 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jeremiah Estrada
#56 | RP@
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Estrada | None-None | 2.66 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 1.75 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.66
ERA
Ldr 1.75
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
51%
CARDINALS
49%
PADRES
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
SD By 1-2 runs
16.8%
SD By 3-4 runs
11.2%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.4%
STL By 3-4 runs
15.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3.06
SAN DIEGO
St. Louis
3.85
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
St. Louis
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
B
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 17, 2026
SD @ STL
6 - 1
Jun 16, 2026
SD @ STL
2 - 3
Jun 15, 2026
SD @ STL
0 - 3
May 10, 2026
STL @ SD
2 - 3
May 9, 2026
STL @ SD
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
St. Louis
STL
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.925
▲
OPS
.691
4
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4075.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+38.5% more
St. Louis: 7.9
vs
San Diego: 5.7
Home Runs (L5)
+23.0% more
St. Louis: 0.8
vs
San Diego: 0.6
Errors (L5)
+16.0% more
St. Louis: 0.8
vs
San Diego: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.1
3
STL Score
3.9
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.9
3.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 5.7
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.0 / 14.2
4.0 / 12.0
Walks
1.4 / 2.8
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
SD
STL
SD
ML
53%
85-74
51%
85-83
52%
84-77
51%
85-82
ATS
56%
89-70
54%
91-77
53%
85-76
55%
92-75
TTL
46%
68-81-10
51%
82-80-6
50%
76-75-10
54%
86-74-6
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat