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SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

55-49  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Jul 26 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

50-54  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
George Kirby
STARTING PITCHER

George Kirby

#68 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
George Kirby None-None 4.50 -- 6.0 9
Jose Fermin None-None 6.63 -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
4.50 Ldr ERA 6.63
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) --
9 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
55%
📊
ANGELS
45%
MARINERS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

52.2%

Angels Cover

47.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

18.8%

SEA By 3-4 runs

14.2%

LAA By 1-2 runs

18.0%

LAA By 3-4 runs

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.73
SEATTLE
4.51
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
SEATTLE
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mariners (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 LAA @ SEA 3 - 7
Sep 26, 2026 LAA @ SEA 4 - 8
Sep 25, 2026 LAA @ SEA 7 - 5
Sep 24, 2026 LAA @ SEA 6 - 4
Sep 16, 2026 SEA @ LAA 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.10 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.379 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.693 ▲
OPS
.679
182 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +66.3% more
Seattle: 1.6 vs Los Angeles: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +15.6% more
Seattle: 12.4 vs Los Angeles: 10.5
Home Runs (Season) +15.4% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Strikeouts (L5) +13.5% more
Seattle: 10.0 vs Los Angeles: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 4.7 7
LAA Score 4.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 6.8 7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.6 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 10.0 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 10.5 / 12.4 10.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.1 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
SEA
LAA
SEA
ML
59% 96-66
50% 81-81
55% 89-73
52% 85-77
ATS
60% 97-65
60% 98-64
51% 82-80
59% 95-67
TTL
53% 83-74-5
56% 85-67-10
52% 82-75-5
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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