ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
50-53 | Road
1
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
42-61 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Ginkel
#37 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Ginkel | None-None | 7.66 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Braxton Ashcraft | None-None | 2.42 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.66
ERA
Ldr 2.42
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
58%
PIRATES
42%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
ARI By 1-2 runs
17.2%
ARI By 3-4 runs
11.8%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
3.61
ARIZONA
Pittsburgh
4.21
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 29, 2026
ARI @ PIT
3 - 0
Jul 28, 2026
ARI @ PIT
8 - 7
Jul 27, 2026
ARI @ PIT
2 - 3
May 7, 2026
PIT @ ARI
4 - 2
May 6, 2026
PIT @ ARI
1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.720
OPS
▲
.734
166
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+35.9% more
Pittsburgh: 10.0
vs
Arizona: 7.4
Home Runs (Season)
+12.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.7% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Arizona: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+1.4%
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
3.6
1
PIT Score
4.2
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 9.1
1.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 7.4
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.3 / 14.9
3.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.1 / 3.2
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
ARI
PIT
ARI
ML
52%
82-77
54%
87-74
52%
85-78
54%
86-74
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
50%
81-82
56%
89-71
TTL
47%
72-81-6
52%
80-73-8
50%
79-78-6
49%
73-77-9
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