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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

58-44  |  Road

12
FINAL
Fri, Jul 25 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

56-46  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tim Hill
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Hill

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orion Kerkering None-None 2.72 -- 1.0 2
Tim Hill None-None 2.89 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.72 Ldr ERA 2.89
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
52%
📊
YANKEES
48%
PHILLIES --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (New York)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

39.2%

Yankees Cover

60.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

PHI By 1-2 runs

16.1%

PHI By 3-4 runs

10.3%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.24
PHILADELPHIA
6.34
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
B
Sim Yankees (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 26, 2026 NYY @ PHI 4 - 11
Jul 25, 2026 NYY @ PHI 3 - 1
Jul 24, 2026 NYY @ PHI 1 - 0
Jul 27, 2025 PHI @ NYY 3 - 4
Jul 26, 2025 PHI @ NYY 9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
New York NYY
2 ▲
Games Played
1
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.438
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.724
OPS
▲ 1.041
3 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +175.0% more
New York: 1.9 vs Philadelphia: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season) +157.1% more
New York: 9.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Walks (L5) +19.3% more
New York: 4.1 vs Philadelphia: 3.4
On-Base Pct (Season) +16.1%
New York: 44.7% vs Philadelphia: 28.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 5.2 12
NYY Score 6.3 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.9 / 0.1 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.3 / 8.5 10.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 2.5 4.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 5.6 / 12.9 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.4 / 17.5 22.0 / 27.0
Walks 4.1 / 3.4 5.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
PHI
NYY
PHI
ML
47% 76-85
59% 97-67
52% 85-77
49% 80-84
ATS
59% 95-66
65% 107-57
53% 86-76
51% 83-81
TTL
53% 81-73-7
57% 88-67-9
53% 82-72-7
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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