TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
53-50 | Road
2
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
53-50 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Martinez
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez | None-None | 4.69 | -- | 5.0 | 5 |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.76 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.69
ERA
Ldr 2.76
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
50%
REDS
50%
RAYS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
32%
Under 0
68%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
17.4%
TB By 3-4 runs
19.7%
CIN By 1-2 runs
9.2%
CIN By 3-4 runs
4.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
6.42
TAMPA BAY
Cincinnati
2.91
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.5
D
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 22, 2026
CIN @ TB
1 - 6
Apr 21, 2026
CIN @ TB
12 - 6
Apr 20, 2026
CIN @ TB
6 - 1
Jul 27, 2025
TB @ CIN
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2025
TB @ CIN
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.728
▲
OPS
.699
169
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+75.9% more
Tampa Bay: 1.1
vs
Cincinnati: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+24.4% more
Tampa Bay: 14.0
vs
Cincinnati: 10.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.5% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+2.9%
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
6.4
2
CIN Score
2.9
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 9.1
14.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 1.1
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 8.5
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.6 / 14.0
23.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.8
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
TB
CIN
TB
ML
55%
88-71
58%
95-68
49%
79-81
58%
95-68
ATS
54%
86-73
60%
97-66
50%
80-80
55%
90-73
TTL
53%
81-73-5
47%
73-81-9
54%
83-72-5
51%
78-75-10
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