Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Red Sox LAD @ BOS

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

60-43  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Jul 25 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

55-49  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brayan Bello
STARTING PITCHER

Brayan Bello

#66 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Alex Vesia None-None 2.53 -- 1.0 2
Brayan Bello None-None 3.32 -- 5.1 5
None-None W-L None-None
2.53 Ldr ERA 3.32
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.1
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
55%
📊
RED SOX
45%
DODGERS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 25%
Under 0 75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

50.3%

Red Sox Cover

49.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.5%

LAD By 3-4 runs

13.7%

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.4%

BOS By 3-4 runs

13.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.12
LOS ANGELES
5.09
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: 0.0
B
Sim Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 BOS @ LAD 8 - 4
Aug 1, 2026 BOS @ LAD 3 - 2
Jul 31, 2026 BOS @ LAD 9 - 4
Jul 27, 2025 LAD @ BOS 3 - 4
Jul 26, 2025 LAD @ BOS 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.762 ▲
OPS
.409
204 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +79.8% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5) +63.0% more
Los Angeles: 4.8 vs Boston: 1.8
OPS (Season) +35.3%
Los Angeles: 76.2% vs Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.1 5
BOS Score 5.1 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.5 / 7.8 5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.8 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 11.2 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 14.2 8.0 / 15.0
Walks 1.8 / 4.8 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
LAD
BOS
LAD
ML
50% 80-80
56% 92-73
47% 76-87
48% 79-87
ATS
58% 93-67
59% 98-67
48% 79-84
43% 72-94
TTL
46% 72-83-5
48% 77-82-6
47% 74-83-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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